The determination to stave off foreclosure and keep the house must be genetic.
Almost without exception, every homeowner with a troubled mortgage wants to hang on to the house. “It’s our home”, they insist.
While before the Great Recession, the obstacle to keeping the house was measured by the amount past due on the mortgage.
Now, we need to factor in the often precipitous fall in home values. Even homes with mortgages that are current in Northern California are often underwater by several hundred thousand dollars.
In California, we’ve heard for years that a home is the best investment we could make.
That line was so compelling that lots of the people I see in my bankruptcy practice neglected saving for retirement on the theory that the equity in their home was their retirement.
Now that the equity is gone, homeowners often say, “well, I will hang on until the value comes back so I don’t lose money”.
Every month that paying for your house costs more than renting, you are losing money.
You’re losing the money that exceeds the cost of renting that is poured into the underwater house.
If you could rent for $3000 and the house costs you $5000 a month (including property taxes, insurance, HOA, and maintenance), you are pouring a fresh $2000 a month into a hole in the water. That’s $24,000 a year, or nearly a quarter of a million dollars in a decade. Is that the best use of money?
There are two sound counter arguments: one is the tax advantages given to paying mortgage interest, and the other is the protection against inflation that a fixed rate mortgage offers. The tax advantage of homeownership is often smaller than many borrowers think. The protection against the cost of rental housing rising is, in my mind, a far stronger argument to keep the house. It only applies if the interest rate on the mortgage is fixed rather than variable.
End game
For those who want to ride out the dip in home values til the underwater house is no longer underwater, my question is, how long will that take?
My second question is: what do you gain from the effort if the “prize” is nothing more than the ability to sell the house for what you owe on it?
To help in thinking about how long it will take for an underwater house to be worth what’s now owed, I created a web-based calculator to answer the question, how long til my home’s value recovers?
The underwater home calculator works like this: you enter the value of the home today; the total of the debt on the home; and the rate at which you assume that real estate will appreciate on average in the future. Click the button and it tells you in years, months and days how long you have to wait for the home’s value to equal the debt.
Then you have facts to add to the discussion about should you keep the underwater house.
Image courtesy of mstoeck.











